Part of Circle Analysis
Supported Calculations & Tables
A supporting workbook that normalizes reserve transparency data and derives the operating assumptions used in the Circle forecast.
2026E reserve return
3.30%
Modeled yield driver
Take rate
0.02%
Weighted transaction fee driver
Cost of revenue
61.02%
Driver passed into forecast
Written Analysis
A supporting workbook that normalizes reserve transparency data and derives the operating assumptions used in the Circle forecast.
- 1
Turned transparency reports into reserve economics.
The workbook imports USDC circulation, reserve fair value, Treasury holdings, repo balances, cash balances, and settlement timing items. Those inputs are converted into average float, asset mix, and modeled reserve yield, which are the foundation of the Circle revenue build.
- 2
Derived forecast drivers from historical data.
The calculations tab derives circulation growth, average float stability, transaction volume growth, partner payout rate, take rate, cost of revenue, compensation expense, G&A, IT infrastructure, marketing, and tax assumptions. For example, it supports a 2026E reserve return of 3.30%, a 0.02% take rate, and a 61.02% cost-of-revenue ratio.
- 3
Proved which assumptions matter most.
The supporting schedules show that the DCF is not just a generic fintech model. The economics are mainly driven by float size, short-term rates, and reserve-income sharing, with transaction fees adding a smaller but measurable growth lever.