CrowdStrike Analysis

Written Analysis

A DCF model for CrowdStrike with a forecast build, WACC analysis, terminal value bridge, and implied equity value.

1. 1

   Forecasted a high-growth cybersecurity profile.

   The model grows revenue from about $3.1B in 2024 to $19.6B in 2029 using a 45.1% projection-period CAGR. Gross margin is held around 75.3%, while unlevered free cash flow rises from about $792.7M in 2025E to $1.8B in 2029E.

2. 2

   Built a WACC from capital structure and beta.

   The WACC tab uses a 25.3% debt-to-total-capitalization assumption, a 1.27 relevered beta, 12.41% cost of equity, and 5.58% after-tax cost of debt. That produces a 10.68% discount rate for the DCF.

3. 3

   Showed that terminal assumptions dominate the conclusion.

   The exit multiple method uses a 28x terminal EBITDA multiple and produces a $25.8B terminal value. The resulting enterprise value is about $20.3B and implied equity value is about $22.8B, with the terminal value representing 76.6% of enterprise value. The model therefore proves the valuation is highly dependent on sustained growth and terminal multiple support.